I'm an Pragmatic Optimist...

Too many folks think this way.

Often in the survivalist world/prepper space I get the impression that folks are looking forward to a solar flare, Iranian EMP, societal collapse, financial system collapse, etc. I always wonder what those folks are smoking. Anything that sets the clock back to medieval technology promises a return to a life that is nasty brutish and short. Folks over 40 didn't fare well then, and we wouldn't should those conditions return.

Thankfully those odds remain slim, what I'm about to lay out now is my view of where things are headed. America is a dying Empire, as all empires must when they cease conquering and taxing new lands. Where will we be in 25 years? Here's my guess...

Barring any of the worst case scenarios mentioned above, we'll do what most Empires do as they wane, devalue our money, tax foolishly, see a greater and greater grey/black market, see localities exert more and more control, finally a Balkanization.

The devaluation has been under way since the Nixon administration, and continues to accelerate with each successive administration. There is no way to cater to special interests without continuing to spend like drunken sailors on their last night of shore leave in the PI. What's going to be interesting is to see who wins the next election. My money is on a Rubio vs. Clinton race, though my inner comic would be much more entertained by a Trump vs. Sanders circus. Who knows, I really don't care, other than having a couple of Supreme Court justices to either uphold the 2nd Amendment or strike it down.

The R's will spend on the military industrial complex if elected. The D's will continue to expand the entitlement industrial complex. Realistically it's 6 of one, half dozen of the other. I have zero faith in either party to rein in spending. Sometime in the next ten years, barring any black swan events the Federal Debt and Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid/ACA will start to dominate our budgets, by the time we start to talk about them in a serious manner it'll be to late to fix them.

So back to consequences. I think we'll see a Value Added Tax, sold as the only way to pay down the debt. As with all taxes on consumption it will only serve to slow down tax revenue. Continued Quantitative Easing schemes will be tried by the Federal Reserve to somehow prime the economy while only resulting in increasing the burden on the average American. 

The War on Drugs will come to an end, not due to it being horrible policy, but simply because we're broke. The trickle down here will be in police departments around the country losing 25 percent of cops on the beat, free gear, and the revenue that came from drug convictions, incarceration, and the probation/parole industry. There will be an uptick in violent crime, but also in shakedowns in the form of traffic tickets, code violations, etc. Look no further than Mexico, South Africa, Brazil, Russia, Argentina, and Venezuela to see how cops supplement their income, in official ways, part time contract security work, and through simple bribes,

Speaking of Mexico, we have a failed state on our southern border. Should drugs go legal here the cartels will move to kidnapping, prostitution, and intellectual property theft (think stolen movies) as they continue to thrive. Further straining border states that already feel forgotten by DC. 

Migration within the US will also be an issue. As states that went full retard with spending (California, Illinois, New Jersey, Rhode Island, New York, Taxachusetts, and Conecticut) on Union Contracts/Retirement plans, and other entitlements will see more and more skilled individuals leave, and companies fleeing to more reasonable locales. The animosity that was held towards "Okies" in California will be intensified this time around.

Puerto Rico right now is bankrupt, whether anyone wants to admit it or not. the states named above are 10 years at most behind being in the same condition. It's one thing when the folks see Congress unable to balance their check book, but when you start telling Texans they're going to pay for California's pension fund I think you'll see folks go to guns. I hope it's not a shooting war, but I don't see any other way this ends than with divorce. 

The states on both coasts are so fundamentally different than flyover country that I don't know how the Republic, the idea that is America, can survive. The inter-mountain west might fall under the benevolent rule of the competent administrators that the Mormons can be, but I wouldn't bet any of my money on it. Eastern Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Wyoming are poor, but fiercely independent. The mid-West is anyone's guess. Texas will go its own way, but I think Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi ally with in one form or another. Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, the Carolinas, and West Virginia could go either way. Florida would be a hot mess. From Northern Virginia north it'll be a shit show. 

Again this is best case scenario, any form of a shooting war makes the remnants of Europe at the end of World War II look like a school carnival. 

What can I do to change any of this? Not a damn thing. The folks have figured out they can vote themselves a check from the Treasury, so eventually we'll be completely broke. All I can do is get out of debt, know how to live like my grandfather lived in a world without credit cards or fast food. Love my children and my wife with all my heart, and live a life of honor, duty, and service.

I can't thank Jack Spirko over at thesurvivalpodcast.com enough for his show and willingness to share the skills to be able to live a better life, if times get tough, or even if they don't.